E-commerce is growing again in Europe-5 and is set to transform retail over the next five years to capture 21% of total retail sales across France, Germany, Italy, Spain, and the UK. But while digital shopping expands, physical stores remain a crucial component of the omnichannel experience. Highlights from Forrester’s new Europe-5 Retail E-Commerce Forecast, 2025 To 2030 include:
- Total retail sales: Total retail sales will reach €2.8 trillion in 2030; retail growth over the next five years will be equally divided across in-store and e-commerce sales. Declining inflation and interest rates, falling unemployment rates, rising real income per capita, increasing retail trade volumes, and a strong rebound in tourism have created a positive economic climate that will support retail sales growth in the Europe-5 countries over the next five years.
- E-commerce sales: E-commerce sales will account for 21% of total retail sales by 2030. Price, selection, and convenience will drive e-commerce growth. Forrester’s Retail Topic Insights 1 Survey, 2025 shows that shoppers in the UK and France prefer online shopping because of its ease, convenience, and flexibility and to find the best prices and deals. An increase in the online buyer population, cross-border e-commerce growth, investments in AI (like those by Zalando in its AI-powered discovery feed), and the expansion of discount Chinese e-commerce platforms such as AliExpress, JoyBuy, SHEIN, and Temu in Europe will contribute to e-commerce growth.
Forrester expects retail media spending in Europe to more than double, reaching $43 billion by 2030. This highly profitable revenue stream enables retailers to monetize traffic to their owned and operated properties and first-party shopper data. Ahold Delhaize reached e-commerce profitability in H1 2025 by scaling fulfillment capacity, automating operations, and leveraging retail media.
- In-store sales: In-store retail sales in Europe-5 will reach €2.2 trillion by 2030, with European retailers putting the store at the center of their omnichannel experiences. Primark now offers click-and-collect across all 187 UK stores, and B&Q added click-and-collect service in its stores for third-party marketplace orders. Carrefour opened 400 new convenience stores in H1 2025 while e-commerce revenues grew 16% to reach €3.4 billion, and Inditex invested €1.8 billion in 2025 to optimize space, tech integration, and online platforms.
Our forecast provides a five-year forecast for total retail and e-commerce sales across 22 product categories in Europe-5 countries. The categories include appliances; auto parts; clothing and footwear; computer hardware and peripherals; consumer books; consumer electronics; food and drink; garden supplies, tools, and home improvement; health products; household goods and furniture; jewelry and watches; personal care; sports equipment; and toys.
Forrester clients: Be sure to download the accompanying Excel spreadsheet. Want to learn more? Please schedule a guidance session with me to discuss the forecast in detail.
